Nigeria continues its challenging fight against insecurity and violence. In October, there was a notable reduction in casualties, with 397 fatalities recorded—representing a 22.3% decline from September’s figure of 503. However, the simultaneous increase in abductions indicates a shift in criminal tactics, underscoring the evolving nature of insecurity. The concerning rise in abductions, which increased by 35.5%, highlights that the threat remains persistent and intractable.
Casualty Overview
The regional dynamics of violence shifted in October, with the South-South emerging as the most affected region, particularly Edo State. Cult-related clashes in the state claimed at least 26 lives, mainly in Benin City, as rival confraternities, including the Supreme Eiye confraternity, Supreme Vikings Confraternity, and Black Axe, engaged in deadly confrontations. In a separate attack in Ihievbe-Ogben, Owan East Local Government Area, gunmen targeted a quarry site, killing a police inspector, an expatriate, and three other workers. This attack adds to a troubling history of violence in the locality, marked by frequent killings of security personnel and kidnappings.
In the North-West, banditry continued to exact a heavy toll. Katsina State experienced continued banditry, with attacks claiming at least 11 lives, injuring others, and displacing several residents in Kankara Local Government Area (LGA), leaving communities unable to harvest their crops. The region also witnessed a violent clash between the Mai Nore gang and the Buzaro terrorist group in Dan-Musa Local Government Area, leaving 20 dead.
The North-Central region, particularly Benue State, continued to endure deadly attacks. In Anyiin, Logo Local Government Area, bandits launched an attack late in the evening, killing at least 15 people, injuring several others, and leaving many reported missing.
The South-East saw a spike in violence as well. In Anambra State, during the Onwa Asaa traditional festival in Nibo, Awka South LGA, suspected cultists opened fire in a restaurant, killing 15 people. Similar incidents near Nnamdi Azikiwe University in Ifite Awka led to four more fatalities. In Imo State, a shootout in Mbano LGA between suspected pro-Biafra gunmen and soldiers lead to at least 15 fatalities. The attack which was reportedly motivated by opposition to a government rehabilitation camp in the area, highlights the growing tension in the region.
Sokoto State, in the North-West, experienced coordinated attacks in Sabon Birni LGA, where bandits launched assaults on Dukawa and Garin Zago communities. These incidents resulted in 12 fatalities, significant property loss, and widespread fear.
Other states affected by atrocious violence include Borno (11 fatalities), Zamfara (8), Adamawa (7), Plateau (5), Niger (3), Kaduna (3), Rivers (3), Kebbi (2), Yobe (1), Ogun (1), and Enugu (1). These figures emphasize the nationwide scope of insecurity.
Security Operations
October brought some notable successes in security operations, particularly in the North-East and North-West as Nigerian forces continued their counter-terrorism campaigns. In Borno State, the Nigerian Air Force, as part of Operation Hadin Kai, launched a series of airstrikes that neutralized at least 50 Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters, including a key commander, Qaid Bashir Dauda. These strikes targeted terrorist hideouts in the Southern Tumbuns at Arina. Additional operations in Marte LGA dismantled an ISWAP training camp, eliminating 30 insurgents and destroying critical logistics infrastructure. We however remain wary of air strikes by the airforce, due to the frequency of ‘accidental’ bombing of non-combatant communities and civilian populations.
In Zamfara State the army reported that it had “neutralized” 40 bandits in a coordinated operation involving the military and local vigilantes. In Gusau LGA, Kachalla Ibrahim Gurgun Daji, the notorious leader of one of the prominent terror groups, was killed in a clash between rival factions.
Meanwhile, in Kaduna State, security forces killed at least 28 terrorists and rescued 10 kidnap victims during an operation in the Birnin Gwari forests.
Informal local security groups popularly known as vigilantes suffered heavy losses this month, with 21 fatalities recorded, along 11 police officers and 2 military personnel. The high toll on local security forces highlights the need for enhanced training and better equipment to improve their resilience against such threats and underscores the need for better coordination and support.
Abductions
The surge in abductions in October presents a worrying trend, with 284 cases reported—a significant increase from September’s 277. Zamfara State accounted for nearly half of these incidents, with 149 abductions. The most prominent cases occurred along the Kucheri-Magazu highway in Tsafe LGA, where 50 people were abducted. In Bukkuyum LGA, bandits stormed Maidumma village and kidnapped 33 people, including mosque officials, after Juma’at prayers on October 21, 2024.
Sokoto State was also deeply affected, with bandits abducting 21 people, including prominent religious leaders, in the Gazau community of Isa LGA. The rise of the Lakurawa terror group is impacting communal life and commerce across most of the state.
Meanwhile, Kebbi State experienced multiple incidents of abduction, notably in Danko/Wasagu LGA, where 11 people, including a district head, were taken. Another attack in Bena village resulted in 16 people being abducted from their farms. Although some victims escaped, nine remain in captivity, their abductors have however made a demand for ransom.
In Katsina State, eight people were attacked in Dan Gani village in a series of attacks on the community. Similar incidents occurred in Anambra State, where gunmen abducted 11 journalists travelling to Uyo to cover a football match. While six were rescued, one died in captivity, and four remain missing.
Other states, including Borno (15 abducted), Kaduna (6), and Edo (1), also recorded abductions, further illustrating the pervasive nature of this threat. Some victims were rescued, but the rising number of abductions in Zamfara and Sokoto states highlights the growing desperation of bandit groups. For the families of victims, these incidents not only evoke emotional distress but also an economic strain, as many are left negotiating ransoms under the threat of violence.
Looking Ahead
We continue to observe the ebbs and rise in casualty figures and are hopeful that the reduction in the number of casualties in October is a hopeful sign that ongoing security measures by the security are finally yielding dividends. However, the concurrent rise in abductions highlights the evolving nature of insecurity, highlighting the urgency for adaptive and multifaceted strategies.
Moving forward, the deployment of enhanced surveillance and intelligence-led operations remain crucial, particularly in regions most affected by kidnappings. Strengthening collaboration between security forces and local communities is essential to provide better protection for vulnerable populations. But most importantly, ensuring human security, ending inequities, ensuring respect for human rights, and good governance can never be replaced by military interventions.
Special attention must be directed towards addressing the seasonal threats faced by rural communities during harvest periods. Deploying targeted security patrols and establishing community-based early warning systems can help mitigate the heightened risks of attacks and kidnappings during this critical time. Moreover, expediting the rescue of abductees and ensuring that perpetrators face swift justice will be vital steps in restoring public trust in the nation’s security framework.
As the nation progresses into November, sustaining casualty reductions while tackling the alarming increase in abductions must remain a top priority. Key efforts should focus on reducing inequalities, eliminating illiteracy, providing social security, and promoting functional and responsive institutions; alongside, scaling up intelligence-driven security operations, safeguarding farming communities during vulnerable periods, and fostering stronger partnerships with local stakeholders to improve early warning and response mechanisms. By addressing these challenges, Nigeria’s quest for sustainable peace and security will become achievable.